Modern aeolian desertification on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change

Abstract

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau experienced severe aeolian desertification during the mid‐ and late 20th century, but mitigation of this aeolian desertification has occurred since 2000 despite a warming climate. The causes of aeolian desertiffication and its mitigation have been debated by scientists because of their potentially huge significance for PR China and Asia, as well as for global climate systems. Based on a review of previous studies and our own investigations, it appears that aeolian desertification from the 1970s to 2000 was caused primarily by unsustainable and irrational human activities, and its mitigation since the 2000 was mainly attributable to a warmer and wetter climate, combined with decreasing wind intensity, for the Plateau as a whole. However, the dominant factors for mitigation varied spatially. The Government's ecological protection projects have been implemented in some places with dense population, and played a key role in the mitigation in these places. The Plateau's climate will likely become warmer and wetter in the 21st century based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model simulations. If the simulation results are credible, mitigation of aeolian desertification will continue in the 21st century due to a combination of continuing grazing exclusion and rotational grazing, even without artificial revegetation.