Abstract
TWO NEW MODELS THAT ACcount for uncertainties surrounding global climate change forecasts both conclude that global temperatures are likely to rise strongly by 2020-30 { Nature , 416 , 719 and 723 (2002)}. One study by Peter A. Stott predicts average global temperatures will rise 0.3-1.3 °C (0.5-2.3 °F) and the other study by Thomas F. Stocker forecasts a rise of 0.5-1.1 °C above the average temperature for the 1990-2000 decade. In contrast, the average global temperature increased by only 0.6 ± 0.2 °C over the entire 20th century. The two studies take quite different approaches. Stott, of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research, Bracknell, U.K., used a complex state-of-the-art model that simulates in detail the circulation of the atmosphere and the oceans. incorporates variations in solar output, volcanic activity, greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosols. It runs on a Cray supercomputer and is able to represent in some detail the ...
Published Version
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