Models based on "estimation bias" as a tool for predicting potential threats

Abstract

In statistics, there is a phenomenon called "estimation bias". It is determined by the fact that with the spontaneous formation of the studied samples in social research, a kind of "shift" occurs, determined by the motivation of respondents. The analysis shows that a similar phenomenon occurs in many areas of evaluation related to a person: writing reviews about products and services, conducting surveys, forming applications. This principle can manifest itself in the formation of public opinion on socially significant issues: during elections, referendums, and the like. Moreover, knowledge of the principle of "displacement" can be used to organize a deliberate "shift" of the results of socially significant surveys. Examples of such use are the technologies of "color" revolutions carried out by relatively small groups of people or the well–known method of so-called "smart voting". Using general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, the article shows possible approaches to the formation of such "shifts", analyzes the possible consequences of the implementation of such technologies and formulates proposals to counteract them. It is concluded that the purposeful use of "bias" assessment technologies can lead to conflicts of interests between different groups of society and the authorities, but it could not be corrected until now due to the lack of appropriate counteraction mechanisms. The development of mechanisms for assessing the consequences of the "shift" and countering it, theoretically, can provide counteraction to the use of external influences to destabilize the state in the case of intentional use of the "shift". In case of accidental formation of a "bias", forecasting methods will ensure the detection of an error. Conclusions are drawn that the proposed methodology for assessing the "bias" is not just a theory, its implementation will have a practical effect, which is to increase the stability of the system of state and municipal management.