Models and confidence operation intervals of road, construction and track machines

Abstract

Machine performance is one of the most important technical and economic indicators. Due to the influence of many factors (weather conditions, age and technical condition of machines, qualifications of the operator, etc.), the specific performance in each case will be different, that is, the real performance is a random variable and it is impossible to predict it accurately in advance. However, on the basis of experience, it is possible to establish the proportion of cases where the relevant building codes are met. This share will be an assessment of the probability of meeting the standards. It makes it possible to calculate the required number of machines more reasonably, the energy intensity of the construction process, its cost and labour intensity. In this regard, even at the design stage, it is necessary to use probabilistic ideas about the technological process and machine productivity that will allow taking into account the possible deviations of the actual parameters of work operations from those planned, an increase in the timing of the work and completion of the project. When analyzing the operation of machines, this article will consider only complex reliability indicators: availability factor, operational readiness factor, technical utilization factor, efficiency factor. At the same time, it is desirable to carry out logical and mathematical processing of statistical information for the corresponding coefficients. The article uses software for constructing confidence intervals for statistical models (regression equations) developed at the Siberian Transport University. Taking into account the probability of machines operating in real operating conditions makes it possible to plan their rhythmic work more reasonably, determine the time (terms, duration) of work more accurately, that affects the reduction in the cost of construction products.