Modelowanie cyfrowe w celu przewidywania zagrożenia osuwania się gruntu na wybranym obszarze; Przypadek testowy Ponzano (Włochy)

Abstract

Creating a digital model is one of the aims of the geotechnical engineers, to predict the land sliding hazard which occur in different regions in the world. In February 2017, an extensive landslide occurred in the hamlet of Ponzano as a sloped area in the Abruzzo region in Italy. In this regard, predicting the land sliding hazard is one of the important issues to prevent hazard to the civilizations. In this project we created a model in the 3D dimension through the Plaxis 3D numerical solution software from the data based of the region Abruzzo in 2007 to evaluate the land sliding hazard before happened and then compare the results with the data from the drone data surveyed recently in the 2022. In this regard, the data from the Abruzzo resources from 2007 imported into the QGIS as the open-source cross-platform software to analysis the geospatial data and then imported into the Recap software to work on the point cloud data and then imported into the Civil 3D software to create a solid surface from the TIN surface and finally since the solid surface contains a large number of irrelative details, they were imported into the Rhinoceros software to create a NURBS surface to be smoothed for better performance in the analysis. The NURBS surface imported into the Plaxis and all of the geometry and geotechnical engineering parameters by considering the investigated geotechnical survey that was conducted in parallel in the area, defined for the model. The “Hardening Soil” model considered for the 1st layer as the “clay and lime” and the “Hoek-Brown” model defined for the 2nd layer as the “marl-flysch”. A fine mesh elements distribution assessed also for the model. The phases defined as the “gravity” to define the unit weight of the soil layers, the “plastic” phase to calculate the instant deformations and the “consolidation” to analyze the plastic deformations in the sloped area of the model. In parallel, the drone data achieved in 2022, were imported into the CloudCompare as the 3D point cloud processing software and different methods such as the “segment”, “statistical outlier Filter”, “CSF filter”, “noise filter”, “cross section” etc. were performed to clean the data and then imported into the Recap software to work on data and then imported into the Civil 3D software to create solid surface of the current data after the land sliding. In this regard, to evaluate the displacement occurred from the year 2007 toward the 2022, a TIN volume surface as the colored map created through the Civil 3D software to show the displacements in the z direction and all of the results were compared with the Plaxis 3D numerical solution software. The results showed that the colored map with the displacement in the positive and negative direction of the z is the same of the analyzed model and the values match each other’s and we created a digital model of the selected area to predict the land sliding hazard in the region in the following.