Modelling urban expansion in the transitional Greater Mekong Region

Abstract

Urban expansion in emerging urban areas has drawn plenty of attention. The Greater Mekong Region (GMR) has experienced dramatic urbanisation and urban land expansion in recent decades. Based on built-up area data from the World Bank compiled over the 2000–2010 period, this paper integrates geographical, socioeconomic and physical factors to explore the underlying patterns and dynamics of urban land expansion in the GMR. An explicit and critical emphasis is placed on institutional conditions. The growth of built-up areas in the GMR has concentrated heavily in the capital cities and coastal areas. Additionally, the transitional countries have shown more dramatic expansion. The results of multi-level models suggest that urban developments in the GMR are not only sensitive to local contexts, such as distance to coastlines, accessibility factors and population growth rates, but are also closely associated with country-level factors, such as country political systems, and patterns of economic growth and foreign investment. We also find that the demographic measures of urbanisation have more influence in Thailand, while measures of economic growth have more marked impacts in the transitional countries.