Modelling the potential for wind energy integration on China’s coal-heavy electricity grid

Abstract

Expanding the use of wind energy for electricity generation forms an integral part of China’s efforts to address degraded air quality and climate change. However, the integration of wind energy into China’s coal-heavy electricity system presents significant challenges owing to wind’s variability and the grid’s system-wide inflexibilities. Here we develop a model to predict how much wind energy can be generated and integrated into China’s electricity mix, and estimate a potential production of 2.6 petawatt-hours (PWh) per year in 2030. Although this represents 26% of total projected electricity demand, it is only 10% of the total estimated physical potential of wind resources in the country. Increasing the operational flexibility of China’s coal fleet would allow wind to deliver nearly three-quarters of China’s target of producing 20% of primary energy from non-fossil sources by 2030. Increasing generation of clean energy from wind resources will help China meet its 2030 energy-mix target and combat climate change. Davidson et al. model the wind energy generation potential of China, estimating a grid-integrated potential of 2.6 PWh per year in 2030.