Future forecast of global land wind and light resources in the context of climate change

Abstract

Based on the multi-model ensemble average results of the CMIP5 program, we predict the changes of global terrestrial wind and solar energy resources from 2020 to 2030 under different future climate change scenarios. The results show that the multi-mode ensemble average results have high confidence in the simulation of global wind and solar energy resources. Under different climate scenarios (RCPs), the changes in global terrestrial wind and solar energy resources in the next 2020-2030 (relative to 1986-2005) will have significant regional differences. Among them, wind resources in the Americas, Africa and Australia increased, while European wind-rich areas decreased; those in Asia (e.g., Northwest China and Central Asia) increased in RCP2.6, but decreased in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global terrestrial solar energy resources are increasing in different RCPs scenarios in the future, especially in European solar energy-rich areas. Wind energy and solar energy resources on the global land have obvious seasonal variation characteristics, and the seasonal variation rate varies greatly in different regions. The change trend and change range of wind energy and solar energy resources in different rich areas are different. There are some differences in the RCPs scenario. It shows the complexity of future changes in wind and solar energy resources in response to global climate change.