Modelling the influence of the inoculation level on the growth/no growth interface of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of pH, aw and acetic acid

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This research is an extension of previous work reported in Gysemans et al. [Gysemans, K.P.M., Bernaerts, K., Geeraerd, A.H., Vermeulen, A., Debevere, J., Devlieghere, F., Van Impe, J.F., 2007. Exploring the performance of logistic regression model types on growth/no growth data of Listeria monocytogenes. International Journal of Food Microbiology 114, 316–331.] in which the growth/no growth interface of Listeria monocytogenes was modelled as a function of water activity ( a w ), pH and undissociated acetic acid percentage (UAc). The major difference with the previous work is that in the present research the influence of the cell density ( N) is also considered during the modelling process. New experimental data were therefore collected as a function of a wide range of cell densities up until the level of the individual cell. Prior to the development of model that incorporates N, the expected inadequacy of the high cell density growth/no growth model developed in Gysemans et al. (2007) on the new cell density dependent data was illustrated. Inadequacy of the model at lower cell densities was expected since the data showed a significant reduction of the growth probability as N decreased. For the development of a model that incorporates the effect of N, a square-root type logistic regression model was proposed and evaluated. The model predicts a strong influence of the cell density with an increase in the growth probability if the cell count increased. The onset of this increase is dependent on the intrinsic factors of the medium (pH, a w, and acetic acid concentration). The model also suggests that it is unlikely that a larger population has a higher chance to start growing just because the chance on a strong cell is higher in a larger population. It seems that the bacteria influence each other's growth.