Modelling the impacts of grassland to cropland conversion on river flow regimes in Skunk Creek watershed, Upper Midwest United States

Abstract

AbstractConversion of grassland to cultivated cropland has been linked to downstream alteration of flow regimes. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to construct seven “what if” scenarios for quantifying the impacts of grassland to cropland and vice versa conversion (i.e., replacement of grassland with selected agricultural crops) on river flow regimes in Skunk Creek watershed. The Cropland Data Layer for the year 2011 in conjunction with historical climate data was used to create SWAT models for scenario simulations over 19 years, from 1996 to 2014. The model developed for the historical climate records (baseline) was compared with the scenarios examined using stream flow metrics for a range of flow regimes, including magnitude, duration, frequency, and timing of annual low‐ and high‐flow conditions. The simulation results suggest that grassland conversion to cultivated cropland would generally increase river flows compared with conversion of cultivated cropland to grassland, which may reduce flows in the watershed. Low and moderate flows increased by 2–8% from the baseline scenario with conversion of grass crop and by 1–20% decreases with crop–grass conversion. High flows increased by 3–7% and decreased by 1–18% when grass is converted to crop and crop to grass, respectively. The analysis also suggests that grassland establishment may attenuate the peaks of prolonged small floods and shorter but earlier large floods.