Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Soybeans Water Use and Yields in Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria

Oludare Sunday Durodola,Khaldoon A Mourad

doi:10.3390/agriculture10120593

Abstract

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to reliance on rainfed agriculture. In this regard, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of soybean in the Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria, were evaluated for the baseline period (1986–2015) and future period (2021–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using AquaCrop Version 6.1. Future climate projections from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s climate models (HadGEM2-ES and RCA4) were used in simulating the future scenarios. The results show that for the baseline period, CWR and yield are increasing while CWP shows a slight increase. For the future period, the CWR is projected to fluctuate and depend on the rainfall pattern. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide fertilization has positive effects on yield and is projected to increase up to 40% under RCP 8.5. The results of this study certainly offer useful information on suitable adaption measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to improve soybean productivity in Nigeria.

Highlights

Africa is projected to be more vulnerable to climate change impacts due to reliance on natural resources, the high level of climate variability, the vast rainfed agriculture, and the low institutional and economic capacity to manage and adapt to climate change [1,2,3]
The results show that for the baseline period, Crop Water Requirements (CWR) and yield are increasing while crop water productivity (CWP) shows a slight increase
The results show that under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the changes in future soybean CWP range from 10 to 20% depending on soil texture and future period

Summary

Introduction

Africa is projected to be more vulnerable to climate change impacts due to reliance on natural resources, the high level of climate variability, the vast rainfed agriculture, and the low institutional and economic capacity to manage and adapt to climate change [1,2,3]. Water use for agriculture amounts to about 70% of all water withdrawals from rivers, lakes, streams and aquifers [5]. Water resources, which are the basis for food production are finite and currently under serious pressure. Despite this pressure, water resources need to meet up with current and future demands for agricultural, domestic and industrial uses

Methods

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Discussion

Conclusion