Modelling Maize Yield and Water Requirements under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Oludare Sunday Durodola,Khaldoon A Mourad

doi:10.3390/cli8110127

Abstract

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to large dependence on rainfed agriculture and to several uncertainties in the responses of crop production to climate change. The impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), irrigation water requirements (IWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of rainfed maize in Ogun-Osun River Basin, Nigeria were evaluated for a baseline period (1986–2015) and future projection period (2021–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For the baseline period, there is no significant trend within the variables studied. However, IWR is projected to increase significantly by up to 140% in the future period, while yield might likely decline under both scenarios up to −12%. This study shows that in the future periods, supplemental irrigation has little impact in improving yields, but an increase in soil fertility can improve yields and CWP by up to 80% in 2099. This paper offers useful information on suitable adaptation measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to counterbalance the effects of climate change on crop production.

Highlights

This paper aims at modelling the responses of maize yields and water requirements to climate change in Ogun-Osun River Basin, Nigeria, through the following specific objectives:
The seasonal crop water requirements (CWR), irrigation water requirements (IWR), yield and crop water productivity (CWP) of rainfed maize within the study area were estimated based on the climate data of 1986–2015
The seasonal crop water requirements (CWR), irrigation water requirements (IWR), crop yield and crop water productivity (CWP) of rainfed maize in Ogun-Osun River Basin in Nigeria based on the climate data on 1986–2015 and 2021–2099 were simulated

Summary

Introduction

4◦ 160 N-13◦ 520 N with a population of about 196 million as of 2018 estimates, agricultural land of. 708,000 km and over 70% of the population engaged in agriculture [1]. Nigeria is experiencing frequent food shortages, hunger and water scarcity due to the rapid population growth, the decline in income, climate change (long term) and climate variability (interannual) [2,3]. According to [4], a 60% increase above the 2006 global food demand levels is expected in 2050 driven by the rapid population growth, an increase in urbanization, as well as income growth. In Nigeria, the withdrawal of water for agriculture can rise up to 95% in 2050 compared to 2016 [5]

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