Abstract
Agriculture is the backbone of Uganda’s economy, with about 24.9% contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) as per the Uganda National Household Survey 2016/17. Agricultural productivity (yield per hectare) is still low due to the high dependence on rain-fed subsistence farming. Climate change is expected to further reduce the yield per hectare. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on maize yield in the Victoria Nile Sub-basin using the AquaCrop model. It further assesses the possible adaptation measures to climate change. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) data downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was used to simulate maize yield in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and late future (2071–2099). Results show that maize yield is likely to reduce by as high as 1–10%, 2–42% and 1–39% in the near, mid and late futures, respectively, depending on the agro-ecological zone. This decline in maize yield can have a significant impact on regional food security as well as socio-economic well-being since maize is a staple crop. The study also shows that improving soil fertility has no significant impact on maize yield under climate change. However, a combined application of supplementary irrigation and shifting the planting dates is a promising strategy to maintain food security and socio-economic development. This study presents important findings and adaptation strategies that policymakers and other stakeholders such as farmers can implement to abate the effects of climate change on crop production.
Highlights
The Victoria Nile Sub-basin (VNSB) is one of the ten (10) sub-basins in the Nile River Basin, where agriculture is the main economic activity
Should a decline in maize be predicted in the future, what should the stakeholders do to realise national food security? this study aims to: 1) evaluate maize yield in the Victoria Nile basin under different climate change scenarios using a bio-physical crop model, AquaCrop, 2) compare future seasonal yield under the different climate change scenarios, and
Variability analysis of meteorological parameters is of great importance for researchers and policymakers in decision making, as rainfall and temperature play a dominant role in deciding the use of water availability in the areas
Summary
The Victoria Nile Sub-basin (VNSB) is one of the ten (10) sub-basins in the Nile River Basin, where agriculture is the main economic activity. According to Egeru et al (2014), the cropping patterns have potentially changed mainly due to a shift in the onset of rainfall by a month in some parts of Uganda. More than 95% of the crop production in the country is under rain-fed farming (Sridharan et al 2019; Babel and Turyatunga 2014). This high reliance on rainfall for the farming of staple crops threatens the national food security, as the rainfall pattern is most times unpredictable (Siderius et al 2016). The rainfall pattern throughout the growing season is the major driving factor for the rain-fed crop productivity of an area (Huang et al 2015).
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