Abstract
How agricultural ecosystems adapt to climate change is one of the most important issues facing agronomists at the turn of the century. Understanding agricultural ecosystem responses requires assessing the relative shift in climatic constraints on crop production at regional scales such as the temperate zone. In this work we propose an approach to modeling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf. under the climatic conditions of north-eastern Poland. The model implements 13 non-measurable parameters, including climate conditions, agronomic factors, physiological processes, biophysical parameters, yield components and biological yield (latent variables), which are described by 33 measurable predictors as well as grain and straw yield (manifest variables). The agronomic factors latent variable was correlated with nitrogen fertilization and sowing density, and biological yield was correlated with grain yield and straw yield. An analysis of the model parameters revealed that a one unit increase in agronomic factors increased biological yield by 0.575. In turn, biological yield was most effectively determined by climate conditions (score of 60–62) and biophysical parameters (score of 60–67) in the 2nd node detectable stage and at the end of heading. The modeled configuration of latent and manifest variables was responsible for less than 70% of potential biological yield, which indicates that the growth and development of durum wheat in north-eastern Europe can be further optimized to achieve high and stable yields. The proposed model accounts for local climate conditions and physiological processes in plants, and it can be implemented to optimize agronomic practices in the cultivation of durum wheat and, consequently, to expand the area under T. durum to regions with a temperate climate.
Highlights
How agricultural ecosystems adapt to climate change is one of the most important issues facing agronomists at the turn of the century
A certain amount of heat has to be accumulated in each phenological stage of w heat[7], which corresponds to the physiological accumulation of temperature in each growth stage, beginning from tillering, through stem elongation, to heading and grain filling[8]
Results of modeling The model proposed in the study fits well with empirical data describing durum wheat yields under soil and climatic conditions of northeastern Poland
Summary
How agricultural ecosystems adapt to climate change is one of the most important issues facing agronomists at the turn of the century. The modeled configuration of latent and manifest variables was responsible for less than 70% of potential biological yield, which indicates that the growth and development of durum wheat in north-eastern Europe can be further optimized to achieve high and stable yields. The proposed model accounts for local climate conditions and physiological processes in plants, and it can be implemented to optimize agronomic practices in the cultivation of durum wheat and, to expand the area under T. durum to regions with a temperate climate. The cultivated area and yields of durum wheat are determined by cultivar, climate conditions and edaphic factors during the growing season, and by agronomic practices that are synchronized with the plants’ condition in successive stages of growth and development. Durum wheat has specific agronomic requirements, where high temperatures and water deficit are important yield-forming factors as well as stressors that determine the length of each phenological stage. The hormonal and genetic expression of plants is modified under drought conditions, which shortens the length of each phenological phase and, affects y ields[9, 10]
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