Abstract
A simulation study was performed for assessing climate change impact on maize under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for Punjab, India. The study area comprised of five agroclimatic zones (AZs) including seven locations. The bias corrected temperature and rainfall data from four models (CSIRO-Mk-3-6-0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble) were used as input in CERES-Maize model which was run with constant management practices for two Punjab maize hybrids (PMH1 and PMH2). The maize yield for upcoming 70 years (2025-2095) was simulated and its deviations from the baseline (2010-2021) yield were computed under optimized sowing (early May to early July) and current sowing (end May to end June) period. With current sowing dates, the maize yield declined under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively in all the AZs, i.e. by 4-23 and 60-80% in AZII, by 5-60 and 60-90% in AZIII, by 9-30 and 50-90% in AZIV and by 13-40 and 30-90% in AZV. Though yield decline was lesser under RCP2.6 as compared to RCP8.5, but still it indicates that adaptive strategy such as shifting of sowing dates may be helpful in stabilizing the maize yield. The results for iterative combinations of sowing period revealed that early June sowing in AZ II for both the hybrids, mid to end June (Ludhiana and Amritsar) and end May to mid June (Patiala) sowings for PMH1 were able to nullify the negative impact of climate change. Maize cultivation in AZIV and AZV would not be a suitable venture for farmers of the region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call