Modelling the biological half-life and seasonality of 14C in Fucus vesiculosus from the east coast of Ireland: Implications for the estimation of future trends

Abstract

Radiocarbon levels were recorded in Fucus vesiculosus samples collected on a monthly basis over a three-year period at a site on the east coast of Ireland. The resulting data was analysed using a numerical model which estimates the transit times from the Sellafield plant to the sampling location, and the mean availability time of 14C in seaweed. With the inclusion of a model parameter allowing for seasonal variability in uptake by the Fucus, good correlation was observed between the predicted and measured concentrations. Future temporal trends of 14C Fucus concentrations along the eastern Irish coastline were modelled with the application of three possible prospective discharge scenarios, predicting 14C Fucus concentrations to reduce to ambient background levels within 2.5-years of discharges being set to zero. Such projections may prove helpful in assessing the consequences of discharge management and policy making in the context of the OSPAR convention.