Modelling space of spread Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Central Java use spatial durbin model

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. From year to year, DHF causes Extraordinary Event in most parts of Indonesia, especially Central Java. Central Java consists of 35 districts or cities where each region is close to each other. Spatial regression is an analysis that suspects the influence of independent variables on the dependent variables with the influences of the region inside. In spatial regression modeling, there are spatial autoregressive model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM) and spatial autoregressive moving average (SARMA). Spatial Durbin model is the development of SAR where the dependent and independent variable have spatial influence. In this research dependent variable used is number of DHF sufferers. The independent variables observed are population density, number of hospitals, residents and health centers, and mean years of schooling. From the multiple regression model test, the variables that significantly affect the spread of DHF disease are the population and mean years of schooling. By using queen contiguity and rook contiguity, the best model produced is the SDM model with queen contiguity because it has the smallest AIC value of 494,12. Factors that generally affect the spread of DHF in Central Java Province are the number of population and the average length of school.