Modelling parameter uncertainty reveals bushmeat yields versus survival trade-offs in heavily-hunted duiker Cephalophus spp.

Abstract

Reliably predicting sustainable exploitation levels for many tropical species subject to hunting remains a difficult task, largely because of the inherent uncertainty associated with estimating parameters related to both population dynamics and hunting pressure. Here, we investigate a modelling approach to support decisions in bushmeat management which explicitly considers parameter uncertainty. We apply the approach to duiker Cephalophus spp., assuming either a constant quota-based, or a constant proportional harvesting, strategy. Within each strategy, we evaluate different hunting levels in terms of both average yield and survival probability, over different time horizons. Under quota-based harvesting, considering uncertainty revealed a trade-off between yield and extinction probability that was not evident when ignoring uncertainty. The highest yield was returned by a quota that implied a 40% extinction risk, whereas limiting extinction risk to 10% reduced yield by 50%-70%. By contrast, under proportional harvesting, there was no trade-off between yield and extinction probability. The maximum proportion returned a yield comparable with the maximum possible under quota-based harvesting, but with extinction risk below 10%. However, proportional harvesting can be harder to implement in practice because it depends on an estimate of population size. In both harvesting approaches, predicted yields were highly right-skewed with median yields differing from mean yields, implying that decision outcomes depend on attitude to risk. The analysis shows how an explicit consideration of all available information, including uncertainty, can, as part of a wider process involving multiple stakeholders, help inform harvesting policies.