Modelling of ULF Pc4 - Pc5 Pulsations with solar winds and geomagnetic storm for ULF earthquake precursor

Abstract

The physical destruction and fatalities caused by earthquake events has compelled scientists to develop a method for predicting Earthquakes. It is almost impossible to detect earthquake events due to limited seismometer sensitivity; therefore, a non-seismological predictor was established by using the Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) magnetic field as a potential earthquake precursor. ULF waves respond to magnetic activity that are transferred to Earth by solar winds, and become ultimately linked to earthquake events. The statistical correlation analysis is used between ULF Pc4 and Pc5 pulsation, solar wind parameters; IMF- component (Bz), solar wind speed (Vsw), solar wind pressure (Psw), solar wind input energy (IEsw), and near-equator geomagnetic storm (SYM/H ). Through a multiple regression modelled approach, the relationship between solar wind (SW) parameters (IMF-Bz, Vsw, Psw, IEsw) and near-equator geomagnetic index (SYM/H ) with ULF wave pulsations (Pc4 - Pc5) prior to an earthquake (EQ) event (magnitude, M = 3.0–6.0, depth, d< 100 km, epicentre distance from magnetometer station, r< 100 km) was determined. The solar wind and geomagnetic index parameters were obtained from OMNIWeb, where ULF pulsations (Pc4 - Pc5) were computed from the magnetometer Davao station (Philippines) (7.00oN, 125.40oE) located in a low latitude region. The ULF Pc5 band demonstrated the best fit for the ULF earthquake precursor model in relation to solar wind parameters (Vsw, Psw) and geomagnetic index (SYM/H ) with R2 and R2-adjusted values of (R2 =0.5011, R2-adj = 0.4940). The Vsw, Psw and SYM/H are major factors that contribute to the emission of ULF Pc5 prior to an earthquake, as determined by the stepwise regression method. This ULF earthquake precursor model is intended to address the problem seismologists face when predicting seismic events by assisting non-seismologists in locating the most effective EM-ULF wave bands in solar-terrestrial activities for detecting seismic events.