Abstract
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.
Highlights
Over the past several decades, there has been an increased awareness that nature provides important ecosystem services and resources, which are extremely critical for the healthy functioning of the environment, human society and economy [1]
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model
The main objectives of this study are to (i) setup the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model [35] for the Alata River Basin (ARB); (ii) calibrate and validate the model in both internal and outlet gauging stations at daily and monthly time steps and assess the model performance using graphical and statistical measures; (iii) simulate discharge in future climate using the RCP8.5 scenario [47]; (iv) investigate the impact of future climate change on river discharge in three distinct periods: the beginning of the century (2021–2040), middle of the century (2046–2065) and end of the century (2081–2100); and (v) analyse the significant changes in discharge, precipitation and temperature in the three future periods compared to the baseline condition (2000–2011) using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test [48]
Summary
Over the past several decades, there has been an increased awareness that nature provides important ecosystem services and resources, which are extremely critical for the healthy functioning of the environment, human society and economy [1]. Rivers and associated floodplains, among other ecosystems, provide important ecosystem services [2], including provisioning services (e.g., supplying water, food and raw materials), regulating services (e.g., controlling climate, water quality, erosion, floods and diseases), supporting services (e.g., assisting in nutrient cycling and waste treatment) and cultural services (e.g., providing recreational, aesthetic and educational benefits) These natural services/assets are highly interdependent and can be quantifiable in monetary terms [3,4], which makes it possible to incorporate their monetary value into various accounting schemes to ensure their sustainable use and management for the maximum benefit of both humans and nature [5]. Clean freshwater, like other natural resources, has been taken too much for granted in the past, but it is no longer accessible in many parts of the world due to degradation of its quality and quantity [2,6,7]
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