Modelling of maritime ship repairs processes in shipyards, using the linear regression and correlation theory

Abstract

The tendering and programming-planning activities carried out in the shipyards for the execution of the repair works of the maritime vessels are the result of estimates that operate with fixed data, conditioned by variables belonging to a wide spectrum of conditions and limitations. In the documentation made for the elaboration of the present work and the resolution of the chosen research topic, the studies were directed to the fundamental theoretical fields of: probabilities and statistics; modelling and numerical simulations. The objective assumed by the authors was to find a well-founded method for estimating the retention period of the ship in the shipyard, to exploit the information held in the portfolio of repair works performed to various clients, over time. This gives the perspective of optimizing the decisions of the shipyard management with reference to the problem of anticipating and programming the duration of the repair works of the maritime vessels. The purpose of the research consists in proposing an analytical function for analyzing the linear dependence of the time period, as a dependent variable, on the works carried out in the shipyard, considered as independent variables. The role and importance of the technical specification of the works prepared by the owner / technical manager of the ship, from the perspective of the management of the repair works of the maritime vessels in a repair yard, are highlighted, as well as the importance of the selection of variables with significant influence in the forecast of the duration of the repair works of the maritime vessels in a shipyard.