Modelling of fossil and contemporary data suggest the Broad‐toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) currently occupies a small part of its available climatic niche: Implications of paleontological data for conservation of a threatened species

Abstract

AbstractWe use fossil, sub‐fossil and contemporary records of the Broad‐toothed rat, Mastacomys fuscus, to model changes in its range over the last 21 thousand years. Mastacomys fuscus was exposed to, and flourished in, a much broader range of environmental conditions in the recent past than it occupies today. It also currently occupies a much smaller range than it did in the Late Pleistocene. Apart from a weak response to sea‐level rise in the Holocene, the decline of M. fuscus does not correlate with known climate change. Instead, the contraction of the species' distribution on mainland Australia to high‐elevation areas occurred recently and rapidly. Small changes in the 1000 year BP and present‐day projected distributions imply some contraction of the area of suitable climate to higher elevations of the mainland subspecies M. f. mordicus, up to 2200 m above sea level. However, M. f. mordicus also persists near sea level at Cape Otway (southwestern Victoria) and from sea level to 1500 m above sea level at Barrington Tops (eastern New South Wales, Australia). This suggests suitable habitat may still exist in coastal Victoria and the central Tablelands/Blue Mountains areas. This research highlights the importance and value of using sub‐fossil data to understand changes in the distribution and niche occupation of threatened species as the basis for conservation planning.