Metapopulation dynamics and threatened species management: Why does the broad-toothed rat ( Mastacomys fuscus) persist?

Abstract

Many species that exist patchily across the landscape are declining due to incremental losses of their constituent sub-populations and increasing isolation of those that remain. For threatened species with such patchy metapopulation structure, it is particularly important to identify key habitat patches and understand what factors govern their occupancy so that their management can be targeted and effective. In this paper, we describe the spatial and temporal distribution of an endangered population of broad-toothed rats ( Mastacomys fuscus) at Barrington Tops, New South Wales, and model its dynamics using metapopulation theory. The study population occurs patchily in swamps on the Barrington Plateau. Using faecal pellet searches, live-trapping and data from previous surveys, we identified 12 swamps where M. fuscus persists and 13 where there has been a history of colonisation and extinction. The species now appears to be entirely absent from seven of these latter swamps. Using logistic regression and model selection procedures, we found the strongest predictor of the presence of M. fuscus to be proximity to the nearest occupied swamp. Persistence declined strongly with swamp isolation, probably due to low success of individuals dispersing through the intervening habitat. These patterns support the interpretation that swamp patches at Barrington Tops contain a functioning but fragile metapopulation of M. fuscus. We predict continued loss of remaining sub-populations in peripheral swamps if current dynamics continue, and recommend research to identify the factors that are limiting dispersal and re-colonisation so that the species’ decline can be slowed and reversed.