Modelling of changes in ship’s operational condition during transportation of oversized and heavy cargo

Abstract

The object of research is the operational condition of the ship and its changes that occur in the process of transportation of oversized and heavy cargo under the influence of multiple accidental events. A significant problem is the negative impact of the system of factors on seaworthiness and technical condition of the ship, the integrity of the cargo. Therefore, ensuring the safety of the ship, its functional reliability as a technical object is among the priorities which are extremely relevant in the process of transportation of oversized and heavy cargo. In the course of the research the identification of the basic conditions of the surveyed ship in the process of operation was carried out. The ship in the process of transportation is defined as an aggregate of two objects – «ship – cargo». The decomposition of the stated condition into two variants «in norm» and «having problems», with three components: «seaworthiness of the ship», «technical condition of the ship», and «cargo and lashing systems». Six main operational conditions of the ship in the process of transportation of oversized and heavy cargo were established. The model of changes in the operational condition of the ship during the transportation of oversized and heavy cargo has been developed. This model enables to establish the relationship between these conditions, which are identified and formalized in the form of a single-ordered Markov process model. The process is considered as a process with a discrete time and the presence of a rotational condition with the absence of the property of ergodicity. Experimental investigations were carried out for various initial conditions and the most probable changes in the operational condition of the ship were determined for a specified number of hourly periods. The proposed process model enables experimental investigations for various initial conditions and identification of the most probable changes in the ship’s operational condition through a specified number of hours. It allows to estimate risks and make decisions on support of ship’s operational condition during transportation of oversized and heavy cargo as a theoretical basis.