Abstract
ABSTRACT Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years. Key policy insights Energy systems that reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will be radically different to those of today, necessitating a modelling analysis re-think. On modelled options for mitigation, a range of demand-side measures are often absent resulting in a risk of over-reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and leading to concerns over robustness of corresponding pathways. Regarding models for policy, there is significant scope for improvements, including the use of scenarios that help imagine the radical change that will be required, techniques for improving the robustness of emerging strategies, and better alignment with broader policy goals.
Highlights
Since the 1970s, energy models have represented stylized versions of energy systems (Gilliland, 1975; Slesser, 1975)
Energy modelling analysis has been embedded into national energy strategy deliberation, notably when exploring system decarbonization (Waisman et al, 2019), and has helped inform the climate and energy strategy discourse in the past decade in countries as diverse as the UK (Trutnevyte et al, 2016), South Africa (Altieri et al, 2016) and Canada (Sawyer & Bataille, 2016)
We close by highlighting the key elements that any future research agenda should include to improve the analytical support that the modelling community can provide to national decision makers. This is time-critical for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Summary
Increased ambition brings new challenges that national modelling teams are only starting to grapple with (Glynn et al, 2019; Oshiro et al, 2018; Pye et al, 2017) These include the removal of emissions ‘headroom’ (or residual emissions) by the net-zero target year, more rapid mitigation rates, consideration of new fuel-technology pathways, and determining approaches to climate policy framing, including equity considerations. This is time-critical for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It will support country efforts to propose low emission development strategies that strengthen NDC pledges, and inform longer-term targets, including net-zero emissions ambition
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