Modelling Multifunctionality, Territorial Development, and Policy Scenarios in Rural Europe: an Alternative Perspective on CAP Reform Debates Modéliser la multifonctionnalité, le développement territorial et les scénarios de politiques dans l’Europe rurale : une autre perspective sur les débats concernant la réforme de la PAC Modellierung von Multifunktionalität, Territorialentwicklung und Politikszenarien im ländlichen Raum Europas: Eine Alternativperspektive zu den Debatten über

Abstract

summaryModelling Multifunctionality, Territorial Development, and Policy Scenarios in Rural Europe: an Alternative Perspective on CAP Reform DebatesThis article reports an analysis of CAP alternatives using a system dynamics model developed for 11 diverse European rural regions within a recent EU Framework 6 Research Project, TOP‐MARD (Towards a Policy Model of Multifunctional Agriculture and Rural Development). System dynamics, commonly used in ecological and climate change analysis, embodies a range of ‘feedback loops’ and allows the incorporation of a variety of novel indicators. The model includes regional economic sectors, households, a demographic module, and a quality of life module. It explicitly incorporates some of the ‘new’ policy concerns, especially those concerning the rural environment, populations and their quality of life, and territorial rural development. The outputs of the model are economic, social and environmental outcomes estimated for a baseline scenario (current policies) and for reform scenarios, all extended out to 2025. The analysis shows the varying economic, agricultural, social and environmental outcomes from a range of post‐2013 CAP and rural development policy scenarios in different regional contexts. It further indicates variations in policy efficiency in different regions and contexts. The results, although provisional, support the view that policy impacts need to be considered in particular rural contexts. They also support a ‘place‐based’ approach to sustainable development in rural regions.