Modelling More Sustainable Aluminium (4 pp)

Abstract

This case study describes the development and utilization of a global, quantitative model of current and projected aluminium and life cycle inventory mass flows. The model and key results were developed to be shared with global aluminium industry technical experts, executives, and external stakeholders to better understand potential paths to more global sustainable aluminium. The model is based on annual statistical data since 1950 provided by government agencies and regional aluminum associations and on the most recent life cycle inventory intensity data (year 2002) complied for the global industry by the International Aluminium Institute. Modeling of future aluminium and resource flows are based on literature and industry expert projections of future product shipment demand. The availability of recycle flows to meet these market demands are based on projected utilization, yield, and melt loss recovery rates, post-consumer recycling rates, and anticipated future product lifetimes. The model was developed with quantitative 'what-if' capability to determine the positive impact of enhanced recycling, lower resource intense production, and product usage scenarios. The model provides the first quantitative assessment of annual global aluminium and life cycle inventory flows. Results include a quantitative estimate by major market of global aluminium product inventory, system losses, recycle rates, and selected resource requirements and air emissions implications. Recommendation and Perspective. Model results and scenarios have been reviewed and shared with global aluminium technical leaders, executives and key external stakeholders in support of the International Aluminum Institute's new voluntary global objective to better monitor and enhance aluminium recycling and sustainable development initiative.