Modelling impacts of climate change on snow drought, groundwater drought, and their feedback mechanism in a snow-dominated watershed in western Canada

Abstract

Snow accumulation and its melt are key hydrological processes in cold watersheds, which can affect groundwater (GW). With climate change projected to alter snow processes in these regions, understanding their impacts on the development of droughts is vital. A deficit in snow precipitation or accelerated snowmelt due to warming can trigger snow drought, potentially leading to GW drought. To investigate this relationship at a watershed scale, we coupled the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW to simulate various surface and groundwater processes under historical (1980–2013) and future (2040–2073) warming scenarios in western Canada. We calibrated, validated, and verified our models using streamflow, GW heads, and snow depth data from multiple hydrometric stations, observation wells, and a grid product. Using simulated data, we analyzed snow and GW drought characteristics, their dominant physical processes, and GW response time across eco-hydro(geo)logical regions like Mountains, Foothills, and Plains. Historical data show Mountains are experiencing more snow droughts while Plains are facing greater GW droughts. However, future scenarios suggest increased snow droughts in all regions and a shift towards more severe GW droughts in Plains. Historical response time spans 4–6 months from Mountains to Plains, with projected reductions in Mountains and Foothills, and a slight increase in Plains in the future. The dominant physical processes controlling GW response across all regions are soil moisture and percolation, with curve number displaying more significance in Mountains, and water yield exerts more control in Foothills and Plains. During cold seasons, SWE and snowmelt had minimal impact on GW response in Plains, while they presented a major role in Mountains. This study lays the basis for further research on snow-groundwater interactions in cold watersheds, aiding water resource management in mid-to-high latitude regions and providing a unified framework for analyzing snow and GW drought relationships.