Abstract
ABSTRACTThis paper deals with modelling the relationship between human Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection, the abundance and prevalence of infection of the host (the bank vole), mast, and temperature. These data were used to build and parametrise generalised regression models, and parametrise them using datasets on these factors pertaining to the Netherlands. The performance of the models was assessed by considering their predictive power. Models including mast and monthly temperature performed well, and showed that mast intensity influences vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year. Thus, the model can aid in forecasting of human illness cases, since (1) mast intensity influences the vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year and (2) monitoring of mast is much more feasible than determining bank vole abundance.
Highlights
European hantaviruses are a concern for public health, since they can cause influenza-like infection in humans, and may lead to the more serious haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is excreted by voles in faeces and urine, which may be aerosolised from the environment, become airborne, and subsequently infect humans
Data were collected on several aspects that are thought to be important in PUUV epidemiology: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year mast, bank vole abundance, bank vole infection, and the resulting human case data
Summary
European hantaviruses are a concern for public health, since they can cause influenza-like infection in humans, and may lead to the more serious haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. In this paper we consider Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), which is known to cause human infections, and is associated with the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). PUUV is excreted by voles in faeces and urine, which may be aerosolised from the environment, become airborne, and subsequently infect humans. In [1] it is shown that PUUV hantavirus may survive up to 11 days at room temperature, and up to 18 days at 4oC, indicating that human infection from the environment is a feasible scenario. There may be more recreation in forests, the preferred habitat of bank voles, in the summer months, when temperatures are inviting.[2] human activities like cleaning a dusty stable are potentially risky, since this may disturb settled contaminated aerosols, releasing them into the air, making them available for inhalation
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