Global stability analysis and modelling onchocerciasis transmission dynamics with control measures

Abstract

ABSTRACT Background: Onchocerciasis infection is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for eradication by 2030. The disease is usually transmitted to humans through the bites of black flies. These black flies mostly breed near well-oxygenated fast-running water bodies. The disease is common in mostly remote agricultural villages near rivers and streams. Objective: In this study, a deterministic model describing the infection dynamics of human onchocerciasis disease with control measures is presented. Methods: We derived the model’s reproductive number and used a stability theorem of a Metzler matrix to show that disease-free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproductive number is less than one. Parameter contribution was conducted using sensitivity analysis. The model endemic equation is shown to be a cubic polynomial in the presence of infected immigrants and a quadratic form in their absence. Results: When the inflow of infected immigrants is null, the model endemic equation may admit a unique equilibrium if the reproductive number is greater than one, or admits multiple endemic equilibria if the reproductive number is less than unity. We carried out a sensitivity analysis to identify the significant parameters that contribute to onchocerciasis spread. Conclusion: Onchocerciasis disease can be eradicated if the importation of infected immigrants is properly monitored. The integration of the One Health concept in the public health system is key in tackling the emergence and spread of diseases.