Modelling Habitat Suitability and Distribution of the Endemic Mindanao Horned Frog (Pelobatrachus stejnegeri) and its Response to Changing Climate

Abstract

Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, with special concern to endemics whose range is restricted and limited. This study focuses on the Mindanao horned frog (Pelobatrachus stejnegeri), an endemic species to the Philippines, susceptible to climate-induced habitat changes. Using MaxEnt species distribution model (SDM), the current and future (year 2050 projections) habitat suitability and distribution of P. stejnegeri were modelled. Results showed that annual mean temperature, elevation, and annual precipitation were the environmental variables having the highest influence on P. stejnegeri's distribution. The model predicts a significant range contraction under representative concentration pathways (RCP) future scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), with a more pronounced decrease in distribution (31.72%) under the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). These findings emphasize the vulnerability of P. stejnegeri to climate change and highlight the importance of integrating SDM into conservation and management strategies to protect endemic species under changing climatic conditions.