Modelling covid-19 data using double geometric stochastic process

Abstract

Some properties of the geometric stochastic process (GSP) are studied along with those of a related process which we propose to call the Double geometric stochastic process (DGSP), under certain conditions. This process also has the same advantages of tractability as the geometric stochastic process;it exhibits some properties which may make it a useful complement to the multiple Trends geometric stochastic process. Also, it may be fit to observed data as easily as the geometric stochastic process. As a first attempt, the proposed model was applied to model the data and the Coronavirus epidemic in Iraq to reach the best model that represents the data under study. A chicken swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to choose the best model representing the data, in addition to estimating the parameters a, b, µ, and σ2 of the double geometric stochastic process, where µ and σ2 are the mean and variance of X1, respectively. © 2021, Semnan University, Center of Excellence in Nonlinear Analysis and Applications. All rights reserved.