Modelling climate change impacts on crop production in food insecure regions: The case of Niger

Abstract

To quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems and to support policy processes and farm level decisions, the agricultural meteorology community is extensively applying climate-crop modelling approaches. The herein study evaluates the impact of two climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways-RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) on main crops (millet, sorghum and cowpea) grown in two agroclimatological regions (Soudano-Sahelian and Sahel) in the Republic of Niger. Climate projections using HadGEM2-ES model show increasing precipitation trends of up to + 30 % under RCP 8.5 in Birni N′Konni (Soudano-Sahelian) and a decrease of 1 % under RCP 4.5 in Mare de Tabalak (Sahel) when comparing the 2021–30 and 2071–80 periods. The number of dry days and heavy rainfall events during the wet-season are also expected to gain in frequency over the century. As a result, the productivity of major crops is threatened, with potential dire consequences for national food security and the income of millions. The emerging findings of the crop-modelling work using AquaCrop show decrease/increase yield trends for millet, sorghum and cowpea of about 0 to − 50 %, + 5 to − 20 %, + 11 to + 18 %, respectively, by the end of the century (2060–80), depending on the agroclimatic zone, sowing date and RCP. Overall, the emerging findings of this work can be used to inform agricultural transformation and adaptation to climate change by promoting a higher resilience against both excess of water (due to high rainfall events) and lack of water resources (due to extended dry periods).