Abstract

AbstractIn December 2019, the virus SARS-CoV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The virus started to spread from China and dispersed over the rest of the world. In March 2020, WHO (World Health Organization) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The transmission path of the pandemic was accelerated by different types of transportation. With complete analysis of spatial data, population density, types of traffic networks, and their properties, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 was estimated. GIS (Geographical Information System), numerical methods, and software for network analysis were used in this research to model scenarios of virus distribution on a global scale. The analyzed data included air, railway, marine, and road traffic. In the pandemic research, numerous models of possible trajectory of viruses can be created. Many have a stochastic character. This study includes all countries in the world affected by the COVID-19 up to date. In this study, GIS methods such as buffer, interpolations, and numerical analysis were used in order to estimate and visualize ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation. According to the availability of new data, trajectory of virus paths was estimated. On the other hand, sparsely populated areas with poorly developed and small traffic networks (and isolated island territories) tend to be less or not affected as shown by the model. This low-cost approach can be used in order to define important measures that need to be addressed and implemented in order to successfully mitigate the implications of COVID-19 not only on global, but local and regional scales as well.

Highlights

  • Modern society has forgotten the danger of infectious diseases, and relying on medical advancement created a zone of false comfort, by suppressing the memory of many outbreaks and pandemics that have occurred throughout history [1,2]

  • Sparsely populated areas with poorly developed and small traffic networks tend to be less or not affected as shown by the model. This low-cost approach can be used in order to define important measures that need to be addressed and implemented in order to successfully mitigate the implications of COVID-19 on global, but local and regional scales as well

  • Four types of traffic were investigated in conjunction with pandemic dispersion of COVID-19

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Summary

Introduction

Modern society has forgotten the danger of infectious diseases, and relying on medical advancement created a zone of false comfort, by suppressing the memory of many outbreaks and pandemics that have occurred throughout history [1,2]. [9] and [10], Geographic Information System (GIS) stands as an essential tool for the analysis of the spatial distribution of infectious diseases and can aid in the process of combating a pandemic and improving the quality of medical care. Since it has an important place in imagery evaluation of disease growth, concentrations variability, or spreading of threats across time, it has much to offer medical geography (health care planning and service provision) and epidemiological research in general. Many methods and techniques supported by GIS could find prominent place in public health and epidemiology research as shown by the contemporary studies conducted worldwide [9,10,11,12,13,14,15]

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