Modelling adaptation and transformative adaptation in cropping systems: recent advances and future directions

Abstract

Transformative adaptation of cropping systems requires adjustments that are significant in magnitude and sensitive to changes in climate drivers. Crop models are a key tool used to assess the potential of adaptation options and to identify their sensitivity to climate. However, the decision on which options to include in modelling studies is often driven by data availability, rather than an assessment of which options are most likely to be transformative. The ability of agricultural models to assess a wider range of options has improved in recent years, but the application of crop models in assessing adaptation effectiveness remains limited with some of the most effective options underrepresented (e.g. agroforestry or climate services). Here, we call for agricultural modelling studies to include a broader range of adaptation options (inclusive of agronomic, nature-based, technological and financial adjustments) and outline solutions that would allow for better representation of these options within integrated agricultural models.