Modeling winter survival in cereals: An interactive tool

Abstract

AbstractAn interactive web‐based model (https://norstar.usask.ca/survivalmodel) that simulates winter survival in cereals has been developed for use by farmers, extension workers, plant breeders, and researchers. Consistent with our current understanding of low‐temperature (LT) gene regulation, the model is based on a series of equations describing phenological development, acclimation, dehardening, and damage due to LT stress. Low‐temperature tolerance is estimated on a daily basis relative to crown temperature, stage of phenological development, and cultivar LT tolerance potential. Acclimation proceeds until the start of the reproductive growth stage, which becomes a critical developmental switch that initiates the downregulation of LT tolerance gene expression. Environmental data can be uploaded and model input parameters revised to allow for simulation of genotypic differences and environmental conditions of special interest to users. Because the model is fully interactive, it can be used as a teaching tool that allows production risks, cause‐and‐effect processes, and genetic theories to be systematically investigated. In addition to encouraging more widespread use of the model, opening access to interested researchers will serve as a means of additional testing and validation allowing further refinements to be made. This will hopefully lead to increased prediction accuracy over a wider range of environmental conditions and a better understanding of the dynamic interactions involved in over‐winter survival of winter annual crops.