Modeling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on ischemic heart disease and stroke in Brazil.

Abstract

A high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with the risk of several chronic diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. This study aimed to model the impact of a 20% tax on all SSBs for IHD and stroke among Brazilian adults. This was an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20% tax on SSBs and projected the incidence, prevalence and mortality of IHD and stroke over a 20-year period (2019-39). Using data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs, and relative risk, we estimated changes in IHD and stroke burden. Our model predicts that a 20% SSB tax may reduce new cases of IHD by ~13%, especially among women, and avert ~8% of the deaths attributable to IHD over 20years. These results represent a decrease of 19 543 new cases and 8466 and 7274 fewer deaths in the period for men and women, respectively. Estimates of reduction in incidence, prevalence and deaths from stroke were not significant over 20years. Even under conservative assumptions, our study found that a small reduction in SSB consumption led to a substantial decrease in IHD incidence and mortality in Brazil.