MODELING THE INFLUENCE SHADOW ECONOMY ON THE MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS UKRAINE

Abstract

The presented work summarizes the arguments and counter-arguments within the scientific discussion on the construction of models of the impact of the shadow economy on the macroeconomic indicators of the country. The level of the shadow economy has a negative impact on Ukraine's macroeconomic indicators. The shadow economy is a covert and / or non-covert economic activity whose purpose is to intentionally or forcibly generate excess profits due to uncontrolled socio-economic relations. The main purpose of the study is to identify the impact of the shadow economy on the macroeconomic indicators of the country. The systematization of literature sources and approaches to solving the problem of finding a connection between the level of the shadow economy and macroeconomic indicators has shown that this problem is quite relevant among scientists around the world. The research was carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) acquaintance with the basic concepts of research and analysis of literature sources; 2) formation of the input data set for further research; 3) verification of data for anomalies; 4) calculation of the integrated indicator; 5) verification of data on stationarity; 6) check for multicollinearity; 7) correlation-regression analysis. The methodological tools of the conducted research were the methods of correlation-regression analysis, the application of the Irwin criterion to detect abnormal levels, the Foster-Student method to investigate the stationarity of time series, and the Ferrar-Glober algorithm to detect multicollinearity in the input array. The study period is 2010-2021. Ukraine was chosen as the object of research. The scientific work presents the results of an empirical analysis of models of the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the level of the shadow economy of Ukraine, which showed that this impact exists and is quite strong. Based on the results of the research, conclusions were formulated about the strong influence of macroeconomic indicators on the level of the shadow economy of Ukraine, it was theoretically proven that the level of the shadow economy of Ukraine is more than 90% described by the selected set of macroeconomic indicators.