Abstract
This study aimed to assess the effect of water activity (aw) (0.93–0.95), pH (5.1–5.8), and concentration of calcium propionate (0.25 and 0.41%) on the germination time of individual spores of Penicillium paneum. The germination of single spores was examined by capturing images at every hour using the Axio Observer.Z1 inverted microscope ( × 100) connected to the camera at 25 °C for 96 h. The results indicated that P. paneum germination time was significantly affected by aw and pH (ρ < 0.05). As most of the growth curves exhibited asymmetric shapes, the asymmetric model was fitted to germination data and the maximum percentage of viable spores (Pmax; %), shape parameter (d), and germination time (τ; hour) were obtained. τ -values ranged from 26.5 to 40.7 h. After the Monte Carlo simulation, a probability distribution of time for 10% of the P. paneum population (t10%) to germinate was obtained. The mean value of t10% was 25 h, ranging from 15 to 47 h (95% confidence interval). The variability in germination and growth of P. paneum single spores highlights the challenge of predicting and preventing this critical phenomenon.
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