Abstract
The impacts of climate change on the water availability of Zarrine River Basin (ZRB), the headwater of Lake Urmia, in western Iran, with the Boukan Dam, are simulated under various climate scenarios up to year 2029, using the SWAT hydrological model. The latter is driven by meteorological variables predicted from MPI-ESM-LR-GCM (precipitation) and CanESM2-GCM (temperature) GCM models with RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, and downscaled with Quantile Mapping (QM) bias-correction and SDSM, respectively. From two variants of QM employed, the Empirical-CDF-QM model decreased the biases of raw GCM- precipitation predictors particularly strongly. SWAT was then calibrated and validated with historical (1981–2011) ZR-streamflow, using the SWAT-CUP model. The subsequent SWAT-simulations for the future period 2012–2029 indicate that the predicted climate change for all RCPs will lead to a reduction of the inflow to Boukan Dam as well as of the overall water yield of ZRB, mainly due to a 23–35% future precipitation reduction, with a concomitant reduction of the groundwater baseflow to the main channel. Nevertheless, the future runoff-coefficient shows a 3%, 2% and 1% increase, as the −2% to −26% decrease of the surface runoff is overcompensated by the named precipitation decrease. In summary, based on these predictions, together with the expecting increase of demands due to the agricultural and other developments, the ZRB is likely to face a water shortage in the near future as the water yield will decrease by −17% to −39%, unless some adaptation plans are implemented for a better management of water resources.
Highlights
Fresh water uses are expected to increase significantly in the coming years, owing to population growth, increased urbanization and agricultural development
Iran will be facing a serious and protracted water shortage [2]. This water scarcity is aggravated by increased climate variability due to global climate change reflected by droughts with drying lakes and rivers, declining groundwater resources and deteriorating water quality in the country [3]
Input precipitation to the model is based on an MPI-ESM-LR model from CMIP5 Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulation results for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, downscaled by Quantile Mapping (QM) with two variants, Kernel Density Function and Empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) (ECDF)
Summary
Fresh water uses are expected to increase significantly in the coming years, owing to population growth, increased urbanization and agricultural development. Water Management in Agriculture” reveals that one in three people in the world is already facing severe water shortages [1]. This holds for the Mediterranean and arid climate zone across the northern hemisphere. Iran will be facing a serious and protracted water shortage [2]. This water scarcity is aggravated by increased climate variability due to global climate change reflected by droughts with drying lakes and rivers, declining groundwater resources and deteriorating water quality in the country [3]. Since climate change impacts will reduce the available water resources, and increase the water demands by crops, i.e., will
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