Modeling the extinction risk of European butterflies and odonates.

Abstract

Insect populations have become increasingly threatened during the last decades due to climate change and landuse intensification. Species characteristics driving these threats remain poorly understood. Trait-based analyses provide a straight-forward approach to gain a mechanistic understanding of species' extinction risk, guiding the development of conservation strategies. We combined morphological traits and phylogenetic relationship for 332 European species of butterflies and 115 species of odonates (dragon and damselflies) to model their red list status via phylogenetically controlled ordered logistic regression. We hypothesized that extinction risk increases with increasing body volume and wing area, decreasing range size, and is larger for brighter species. All investigated traits exhibited a strong phylogenetic signal. When controlling for phylogenetic relationship, we found that extinction risk of butterflies increased with decreasing range size. The extinction risk of odonates showed no relationship with the selected traits. Our results show that there is no universal trait defining the extinction risk of our investigated insect taxa. Furthermore, evolutionary history, measured as the phylogenetically predicted part of our analyzed traits, poorly predicted extinction risk. Our study confirms the focus of conservation measures on European butterfly species with small range sizes.