Modeling the effects of management and elevation on West Texas dryland cotton production

Abstract

As the Ogallala Aquifer depletes there is a need to identify management options that might make un-irrigated cotton production sustainable over the U.S. Southern High Plains (SHP). To explore those options, the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model was used to simulate the effects of planting options and elevation effects on SHP dryland cotton production. Of the management variables that define the 56 planting options simulated, planting date and density account for the most variability in median SHP yields. Cooler SHP growing seasons have the effect of reducing median lint yields relative to those simulated over the lower elevations of the nearby Rolling Plains. This effect is not as evident in median Rolling Plains yields, which suggests it can be traced to the cooler growing environment of the higher SHP elevations. Also, at both higher and lower elevations lower planting densities maximize median yields, while higher densities result in the lowest yields. These results suggest that the yield suppressing effect of the SHP region’s cooler growing conditions might be compensated for by planting early whenever possible and planting at lower densities. The clear decreasing effect on median yields at higher elevation also suggests the possibility of SHP cotton production moving to the lower elevations of the nearby Rolling Plains as Ogallala Aquifer levels drop.