Modeling the effect of shoreline change on real estate value

Abstract

While significant global research has been dedicated to value estimation and its influencing factors, which are crucial for the real estate sector, a discernible gap exists in studies examining the long-term impact of shoreline modifications, especially those induced by upcoming coastal constructions, on coastal real estate values.The study was conducted in a coastal region of the Karasu district, Sakarya province. The COPREM-2D numerical model was used to predict shoreline change. A hedonic value model, rooted in semi-logarithmic regression, was developed, yielding value equations for residences, plots, and lands. By creating an integrated model in which the shoreline change numerical model and hedonic value numerical model work together, a value estimation application was made with the integrated model for a selected coastal real estate property. Findings indicate that a property valued at TL 155,994.57 in 2021 is projected to depreciate to TL 35,878.75 b y 2028 due to anticipated submersion from shoreline changes. The study underscores the negative value implications of properties nearing the shoreline and the positive value implications of those distancing from it.