Modeling the choice of household vehicle for social-recreational tours

Abstract

Predicting the vehicle used for individual trips and tours can help improve the quantification of energy consumption, quality of emissions forecasts, and assess impacts of policies that vary by vehicle type. The focus of this study is to contribute to incorporating this aspect within current activity-based modeling frameworks. Data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey of the United States are used in this analysis. The empirical scope of this study is limited to two-adult two car households in the context of social-recreational tours; however, this methodology can be directly extended to other cases as well. An exploratory analysis indicates that the “primary driver” variable is perhaps the strongest predictor of the vehicle allocated to independent tours and tours made by adults with children. In the case of joint tours, there is clearly a choice of vehicle to be made. Following the exploratory analysis, two models were developed. One allocates each vehicle to a primary driver in the household (long-term, household-level model). The second allocates a vehicle for the joint tours (short-term, tour-level model). Both models were estimated using the unlabeled binary-logit methodology. Several vehicle attributes (such as size/body type, fuel efficiency, age, and operating costs) and socio-economic variables (age, and presence of children) were estimated to be statistically-significant predicators of the vehicle-allocation patterns.