When do households make vehicle transactions? What type of vehicle households choose after transaction events?

Abstract

This study presents a biographical approach to modeling households’ vehicle ownership states and vehicle type choice, using data from a retrospective survey. Over a lifetime, households purchase their first vehicle by terminating no-car ownership state, and subsequently re-evaluate their decision of changing fleet size by multiple vehicle transactions that cause termination of transient vehicle ownership states. This study evaluates determinants of the termination probability of households’ no-car ownership state and transient vehicle ownership states by exclusively examining the effects of life-cycle events and long-term life-stage transitions using a random parameter accelerated hazard-based modeling framework. It also investigates vehicle type choice of first-time and transient vehicle owners using a random parameter logit modeling technique. Vehicle attributes, life-cycle events and life-stage transitions are found to be strong predictors of both type households’ vehicle choices. Results of this study will assist policy makers to develop longer-term policy interventions required to support sustainable transportation systems.