Abstract
The article's purpose was to model the assessment of the associated impact of migration and economic of Azerbaijan. The indicators of the correlation between the intensity of migration and economic growth have been substantiated. Using the Granger test, the cause-and-effect relationships of migration and the country's economic development were determined. Based on the identified relationships, a polymodal complex has been built, consisting of regression models, which reflect the nature of the mutual influence between socio-economic development indicators and the intensity of migration in Azerbaijan. The hands' number of immigrants and emigrants in Azerbaijan for 2024 has been predicted considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The optimal ratio between the number of immigrants and emigrants was determined by linear optimization, ensuring GDP per capita in Azerbaijan at the level of modern economic development. The results obtained can serve as a basis for the development of a compelling state migration policy.
Highlights
Before the COVID19 pandemic, and during a period of stabilization of the economic situation within conditions of sustainable development, there was an increase in the flow of migrants to Azerbaijan from other countries (State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2021)
We focused on studying the correlation between the intensity of migration processes and indicators of the country's economic development
A system of polymodal regression models has been developed in this study to assess the conjugation of the intensity of migration flows and the country's economic development in modern conditions
Summary
Before the COVID19 pandemic, and during a period of stabilization of the economic situation within conditions of sustainable development, there was an increase in the flow of migrants to Azerbaijan from other countries (State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2021). Despite this positive trend, Azerbaijan's net migration balance remains negative; migration outflow persists. In many scientific studies on this topic (Yüksel et al, 2018; Wistrand, 2017; Chudinovskikh & Denisenko, 2020), the leading causes of internal and external migration in Azerbaijan at different time periods included political and social instability, as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Internal and external migration of the population is largely associated with demographic development conditions, namely access to education, employment, wages, social infrastructure, etc. Internal and external migration of the population is largely associated with demographic development conditions, namely access to education, employment, wages, social infrastructure, etc. (Yüksel et al, 2018; Wistrand, 2017)
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