Modeling spatiotemporal heterogeneity in interval-censored traffic incident time to normal flow by leveraging crowdsourced data: A geographically and temporally weighted proportional hazard analysis

Abstract

Non-recurrent traffic congestion arising from traffic incidents is unpredictable but should be addressed efficiently to mitigate its adverse impacts on safety and travel time reliability. Numerous studies have been conducted about incident clearance time, while the recovery time, due to the limitations of data collection, is often inadvertently neglected in assessing incident-induced duration (i.e., the time from incident occurrence to the normal flow of traffic). Overlooking the recovery time is likely to underestimate the total incident-induced impact. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of observed factors is not adequately captured in incident duration models. To address these gaps, this study specifically investigated traffic crashes as they reflect safety issues and are the primary cause of non-recurrent congestion. The emerging crowdsourced traffic reports were harnessed to estimate crash recovery time, which can complement the blind zone of fixed detectors. A geographically and temporally weighted proportional hazard (GWTPH) model was developed to untangle factors associated with the interval-censored crash duration. The results show that the GWTPH model outperforms the global model in goodness-of-fit. Many factors present a spatiotemporally heterogeneous effect. For example, the global model merely revealed that deploying dynamic message signs (DMS) shortened the crash time to normal. Notably, the GWTPH model highlights an average reduction of 32.8% with a standard deviation of 31% in time to normal. The study's findings and application of new spatiotemporal techniques are valuable for practitioners to localize strategies for incident management. For instance, deploying DMS can be very helpful in corridors when incidents happen, especially during peak hours.