Abstract
The mitigation potential of reforestation for offsetting the deleterious effects of increased flooding and soil erosion projected to occur in Atlantic Canada through future climate change was investigated. Modelling determined a strong but non-linear relationship between extent of vegetative cover and runoff volume and discharge rate for a Nova Scotian watershed, suggesting that reforestation will reduce, but not completely prevent, flooding. Predicted erosion rates were found to be progressively reduced in relation to the extent of upland reforestation. Of three scenarios examined in which 60%, 65%, and 85% of the entire watershed are randomly reforested, only the latter would reduce the elevated erosion expected to occur through climate change back to present-day existing levels. Additional modelling revealed that comparable mitigation of soil erosion can ensue through implementation of 70 m streamside buffer strips, which would only take up 19% of the total surface area. Prioritizing riparian zones for reforestation will therefore subsume less of the overall productive land area and therefore enact a less severe socio-economic impact on agriculture and forestry.
Highlights
Changes in land use patterns [1], in particular widespread reforestation [2], have been suggested as a low-cost means to mitigate deleterious effects of global climate change
The mitigation potential of reforestation for offsetting the deleterious effects of increased flooding and soil erosion projected to occur in Atlantic Canada through future climate change was investigated
The purpose of the present study was to expand upon previous work [7] [8] indicating a strong interdependence of hydrology and land-use for a small, predominantly rural watershed in Nova Scotia, Canada that has been the subject of extensive study [9] [10] [11] [12]
Summary
Changes in land use patterns [1], in particular widespread reforestation [2], have been suggested as a low-cost means to mitigate deleterious effects of global climate change. Adaptive resilience to the ecohydrological impacts of climate change through the restoration of large portions of catchments [5] is one strategy of “climate-smart reforestation” [6] that might possibly be employed to “climate-proof” watersheds. Our interest was in using predictive modeling to determine the extent to which watershed reforestation might be capable of mitigating increases in watershed flow and consequent flooding and soil erosion that are projected to occur in the region due to future climate change [13]
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