MODELING PNEUMONIA CASES IN TODDLERS IN INDONESIA USING GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODEL FOR LOCATION, SCALE, AND SHAPE (GAMLSS) WITH LOESS SMOOTHING

Abstract

Pneumonia is an acute respiratory infectious disease that is the primary death cause due to infection in children worldwide, including Indonesia. Pneumonia case modeling is necessary to predict the incidence, especially pneumonia in toddlers. In this study, case modeling using the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) method with LOESS smoothing to determine the model form and the factors influencing pneumonia cases in toddlers in Indonesia in 2021. The research results obtained indicate that with the Inverse Gaussian distribution, the model form for the location parameter is 9,719 + 0,013 + 0,001 + 0,031 and for the scale parameter is -10,897 + 0,125. The resulting model is accurate and suitable for use because the model residuals follow a normal distribution. Along with factors that influence pneumonia cases in toddlers in Indonesia are the percentage of babies receiving exclusive breastfeeding (), population density (), and the percentage of toddlers receiving measles immunization ().