Modeling overdispersed or underdispersed count data with generalized Poisson integer-valued GARCH models

Abstract

Overdispersion in time series of counts is very common and has been well studied by many authors, but the opposite phenomenon of underdispersion may also be encountered in real applications and receives little attention. Based on popularity of the generalized Poisson distribution in regression count models and of Poisson INGARCH models in time series analysis, we introduce a generalized Poisson INGARCH model, which can account for both overdispersion and underdispersion. Compared with the double Poisson INGARCH model, conditions for the existence and ergodicity of such a process are easily given. We analyze the autocorrelation structure and also derive expressions for moments of order 1 and 2. We consider the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters and establish their consistency and asymptotic normality. We apply the proposed model to one overdispersed real example and one underdispersed real example, respectively, which indicates that the proposed methodology performs better than other conventional model-based methods in the literature.